It’s nearly Spring, and we can see the bulbs coming up a little more every day. The Snowdrops are out, and the Crocus next, followed by the Daffodils. But, are we also seeing green shoots for the economy?
The January Retail Sales figures were a ‘surprise’ the experts say, better than expected. But not for us. As a seller of slow-moving consumer goods, we see exaggerated falls in the downs and egagerated ups in the upturns. And since Christmas, we have seen an improved picture.
Green shoots for the economy?
We have seen sales improve. January was the first month with a year on year increase since last May. And February is good too. And our customers are all talking positively about the season to come.
So, having seen a dip, as we bounced out of recession, it is my considered view that we are on an upward trend, which as it builds could be the end of the recession, and a move to more normal times.
Of course there is much that could end it too. the Greeks, the Spanish, the Italians, al-Qaeda, the exchange rate, the weather and Banks to name just a few, but if things remain stable, then good news builds on good news and by the end of 2012, the crisis of the last 4 years could feel as if it’s all in the past.
Of course this is all entirely normal, and follows the patterns of all previous recessions, even the increasing unemployment rate, which should still increase for the best part of a year. But what happens is that people dust themselves down, start a business or get a new job and the economy is re-invigorated with new energy, then we start to create new jobs, and everything recovers.
So, tell your friends, you read it here first, the green shoots are showing. Lets hope there are no surprise frosts to kill them off, and they flourish.
