Is its role to be a state owned bank, doing good for the state, a department of the government? If so, why? Do we need that we own, so we can direct it to do things the others can not or will not? To loan to the unlendable? To support business with projects that don’t get lending from the main sources? To help support the economy with extra lending is admirable, but with that comes greater losses. So if that is the role for RBS then we must accept low profits, or even losses, accepting that the bank provides a service essential for the economy and our collective good, regardless of profits.

Or is the bank just a bank we own, by accident? An asset we want to grow, and get rid of as soon as we can, for as much as we can? If so then the bank needs to behave like a real bank, making decisions based on profit and return. If so, we need the best men running it, the best bankers who can grow the profits, by making it aggressively chase the best business. No sentiment, no half measures.

If the role of the RBS is the second, then we can not keep complaining that it is a state owned bank, so should be doing something else.

The government needs to decide, and I think it already has. It then needs to explain. Let us all know that RBS is not a state owned bank. It is a bank, that we own, but we want rid, so we need Hester to make it as profitable as possible, not a soft option, loaning to people who are high risk. We want the best men, paying only on results against objectives, and the key objective is to make us money and get a sale, getting our billions invested back, and our loans paid off.

So, if the management are delivering against objectives, they deserves a bonus, if not, they don’t. Simple.

If on the other hand, we want a state owned bank, then we can never expect it to be profitable, and we should not reward people with huge bonuses. If it is a real state owned bank, then it is just a complex management task, much like running the NHs or prisons, and the management can think of themselves as public servants.

If we confuse the two roles, we have trouble.

Let’s hope the government have decided which role they want the bank to fulfil.

So, why the decline. Well firstly lets admit that it’s not uncommon to see a smaller dip after the first recessionary dip. The reason is cutbacks. When a recession comes, companies, consumers and governments cut back. Especially governments. their spending is based on a plan that  assumes normal growth, when a recession comes the trend can resume, but the line is now at a lower level, so they have to cut back. Whilst we started from a negative position before this recession, this one is not really that different. Cutbacks cause a second blip.

But, overall, history tells us the second blip is short and less deep. So, we expected it, based on the history, but lets not feel too bad about it.

Also, there was bad news in 2011. The Libyan war was bad news. Whilst in the end it was not too bad, it felt as if we were involved in another major war for a while. Pessimism makes for bad economic news.

Then tax increases and high inflation with low wage rises are taking real spending power away from the real economy.

Lastly was the Olympics. Those who got tickets, paid for them in Q4. I’ve heard, but don’t know if its true that the income for tickets will actually go in to Q3 2012 figures, but even so, it reduced the amount people had to spend on other things in Q4 2011.

So, what for the future?

I am 50/50 about the prospects for Q1 2012, even perhaps mildly optimistic.

There is less bad news around it seems to me. My feeling is that there are jobs being create. We have two new employees, and I hear of new ones being taken on at firms I know. Overall, with business people I meet, it is positive.

So, I expect Q1 2012 to be flat ish, with a bounce back in Q2, and good growth in Q3.

With the Jubilee, then the Olympics, then a massive Q3 GDP boost, expect  Q4 to feel like the recession is finally over, and we can stop walking up the down escalator.

For example, we sell Trampoline Safety Netting. just the net. It’s for when the wind has mangled the net part of your safety enclosure, or the kids sat on it, picking it apart with the fingers for fun. So, replacement netting. But, some people who have seen this, and bought it apparently were disappointed that for their £25 or £35 they did not also get the full enclosure AND trampoline.

So, for 2012 we have a new image that shows the net, but has a warning message explaining that the poles and sleeves are not included. So we also need to say TRAMPOLINE NOT INCLUDED? See them here at: http://www.trampolinesshop.co.uk/acatalog/Trampoline_Safety_Nets.html

And, whilst talking about unnecessary messages, at my local pool, they have a notice on the vending machine saying that these machines are for people coming out of the pool. ‘For health and safety reasons’ people using the machines will not be allowed in for 1 hour.

Why? Apparently someone in the pool has bought the old wives tale that it’s not safe to swim for 1 hour after eating, so they have banned people even buying a mars bar! So much for work, rest and play.

So, where was I? Well I was telling you that the winter here is like a long dark tunnel. We never really know where we are and we get progressively deeper in.

But, then as we return from Christmas, it feels different. We have passed the mid-point. We can now see the end, and every day the light at the end gets bigger. Every day its a little lighter as we leave work, and then the flowers come.

We could set out our season based on the flowers we have out in season. And right now, it’s the start, the snowdrops season. That tells me its coming., Only a few more weeks and the season will be here, so its time to get cracking. Get those last remaining projects complete, get the warehouse tidy, and the stock all prepared.

The mood in our place has changed. The experienced ones know that the trampolines will shortly be moving, and the newer ones get stories every day of the great days in our history and can not wait. At last, we feel the end is coming, and thanks to the snowdrops, we can see its progress.

The projects we have been working on will a chance to make a difference. Tom for example who has rebranded Etoyszone as Trampolines Shop, will see just how much difference it will make. From a plan to reality, and the snowdrops tell us we are nearly there.

‘Experts’ suggested that they invented a whole new way of playing and it could be decades before the rest of European football caught up. And the public believed it because they experts said so. So, the public all believed that it was given that Barcelona would dominate football for the foreseeable future.

Now, just six months later, take a look at the Spanish League Table. Real Madrid are 3 points in front with a game in hand, and with a crunch match between the two at the weekend, could even be 6 in front with the extra game by next week.

So, are Real now the best team that have ever played? Did Barcelona’s reign last only a few months. Is Jose Morinhio the best manager ever to have managed?

No. It’s just that the hype was over played. Barcelona were great. They outplayed an average Manchester United, and played superbly. But they were never going to be unrivalled for the next ten years. Things don’t work like that.

What happens is that the ‘experts’ talk bra use they are paid to, and don’t always talk sense because it’s not exciting. So they could not say, ‘yes they are good, but Manchester were poor, and frankly made them look good’. It’s just not exciting. It’s not ‘news’ .

And it’s the same with business news. They make today’s news and project forward, not expecting anything else to change. So, the economic news is poor, so it will get worse. They see trends and tell you to expect no change, or acceleration. So with the news recently and the prospect of a new downturn, they will tell you to expect total disaster, total economic meltdown, and will make you depressed and feel there is no future.

But, like football, nothing stays the same. The economic situation is floating and changing and made up of millions of tiny changes. No one can really predict it, and the consequence of all those small actions, means that the disaster will not come. It will too around. It will get better. So, no matter how bad it gets, remember it’s not permanent, so start preparing for the better times. Don’t be Barca, be Real.

At times, broadband fails and it’s a real pain, but normally BT react and in a few hours its back. When we had a longer problem this Autumn, we got a dongle and went on mobile broadband, which kept things going.

But, where we are dependant on Google, its much harder to find an alternative.

This week we have a problem which has shown me just how much we depend on Google. Our Sports Business is  growing and developing. Its new but, we are making good sales, and learning about the market. We have two sectors, Sports Balls and Sports Bras. We are trying to target niche areas of sports, where we can make a difference. Delivering great service and amazing expertise in difficult, hard to understand technical areas. We have recruited expert Sports People, and a technologist who understands materials and manufacturing techniques. We are in it for the long run.

But, we made a basic, schoolboy mistake on the Sports Bras website, We managed to accidentally add some code that asked Google to de-index it, and at the same time managed to load the web site to two domains at the same time, creating duplicate content.

The result is that Google has de-indexed the site. Instant relegation in search, and zero traffic. That means zero sales. And it has made me realize just how reliant we are on Google for business.

Its one thing to say, let’s be the best at this, so Google makes us number one. Then you get lots of sales. But, if for whatever reason, Google drops you, the sales go, and you are left with a massive problem.

Its like having only one massive customer. Fall out with them and its curtains. Best we remain friends, and stop the muppet mistakes.

But one of the issues that made us fall out was the pressure of the big boys to discount. And to discount at the peak selling times. So, this month you will see 3 for 2 on Toys, at the busiest weeks. It makes sense for the big retailers since they want a seasonal hook to get you in and spend the rest of your seasonal spend. discounts on Toys and Christmas Biscuits do the job.

But for the manufacturer it is suicide. They discount heavily at the period when they should be making money.

And now, in some of the markets we are in we see small players mimicking the big boys. So, in sports bras, there are promotions being planned for January, giving money off at the peak month. Everyone will be forced to do it, and every brand will participate.

there is a first mover advantage. The first retailer to go down wins. The first brand to offer retail support will win share, but the end game is everyone doing the same thing, making less margin at the time they should be making the most.

It does not make sense, but can we hold off? Of course not. See our range of Sports bras at www.sportsbras.co.uk .

There is the round genius that we have already been selling for the last 12 months. In addition we will have a green round version, that we have all been asking for. And to add to that comes a range of octagonal black ones that for the last year was exclusive to John Lewis.

Our problem is confusion and clutter. We already have 3 Skyhigh ranges, and 3 Jumpkings, and add in our rectangular and oval trampolines the range is becoming unwieldy and confused.

Do we go with the new styles, or simplify?

Tricky questions. What’s your view?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/832927-what-is-the-worlds-toughest-sport/page/12

You have to be hard to play it.

www.climbingframes.com is not quite a complete site, but is ready enough to launch. Hopefully we are in time to get it out there and noticed in time to get some traffic next season. In reality the season starts Mid-March, so we have only 4 months. Tight, but possible, and even if it takes 6 or 8 months, it should be still good enough to amke an impact during the 2012 summer season.

With a domain like climbingframes.com, we want it to be the pinnacle of the climbing frame market, showcasing the very best products, the best service, the best in expertise.

It will take a while yet, but to help provide focus we have also had a restructuring here. Most people have had a new definition for the job, with new responsibilities. And we have created two new jobs, which we are recruiting for right now.

There is so much to do on the project. We have defined some fabulous new ideas in how climbing frames are bought that we want to trial on this website. So keep in touch and we will let you know which ones are working.